What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 16, 2017

Last week’s economic reports included minutes of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in September along with releases on inflation and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Indicate December Rate Hike is No Sure Thing

According to minutes for the September 19 and 20 meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed has adopted a wait-and-see posture concerning a possible rate hike at December’s meeting. Although analysts previously indicated that additional rate hikes were expected by the end of 2017, the Fed chose not to raise the federal funds rate in September.

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Impact Industrial Production

Hurricane damage was expected to slow industrial production in the short term. The impact of hurricane damage in Texas and Fl0rdia are expected to be short term, but the full impact of the two hurricanes had not been fully assessed at the time of the FOMC meeting.

Labor and real GDP readings rose, but the year-over-year reading for inflation was lower than the two percent inflation rate set by the Fed as a positive economic indicator. The Fed’s dual mandate also includes achieving maximum employment as measured by the national unemployment rate. The Fed originally set a goal of 6.50 percent unemployment in the immediate aftermath of the recession, but the national unemployment rate has exceeded expectations and currently hovers near 4.30 percent. Strong labor markets help propel renters into housing markets as they have more confidence in maintaining long-term employment.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims

Mortgage rates rose last week. Freddie Mac reported an average rate of 3.91 percent, which was six basis points higher than for the previous week. Rates for a fifteen-year fixed rate mortgage also rose by six basis points to 3.21 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dipped two basis points to 3.16 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rates and 0.40 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

New jobless claims fell to 243,000 as compared to expectations of 258,000 claims and the prior week’s reading of 260,000 first-time jobless claims filed.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic readings include the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims will also be released.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 9, 2017

Fixed mortgage rates rose by two basis points last week as the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by two basis points.  Construction spending returned to positive territory, but job growth dropped in public and private sectors. National unemployment was lower.

Construction Spending Rises in August

Builders increased construction spending in August after July’s reading dipped lower than June’s reading. Construction spending rose by 0.50 percent in August, which exceeded expectations of a 0.40 percent increase and July’s reading of -1.20 percent. Higher construction spending in August was driven by higher spending on public sector building projects.

Analysts said that public building projects rose by 0.70 percent, which was boosted by a 3.50 percent increase in building educational facilities. This is a good sign for construction spending as educational renovation and new construction had stagnated for a few years. Construction of new schools could have a positive impact on home sales as schools are typically a major consideration for families with school-age children.

Damage caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma has not yet impacted construction spending.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average fixed mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose two basis points to 3.85 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also two basis points higher at 3.15 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by two basis points to an average of 3.18 percent.

First-time jobless claims were lower by 12,000 claims at 260,000 new claims filed. Analysts had expected 265,000 new jobless claims based on the prior week’s reading of 272,000 new claims.

Private and PublicSector Job Growth Lower in September

ADP payrolls for private-sector jobs fell to 135,000 new jobs from August’s reading of 228,000 new jobs. The federal Non-Farm Payrolls report, which includes public and private sector jobs, dropped by 33,000 jobs as compared to the August reading of 169,000 jobs Analysts had expected 75,000 new jobs in September.

The national unemployment rate fell to 4.20 percent in September from 4.40 percent in August. This suggests that slower growth in payrolls has not led to more layoffs.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on inflation, core inflation and mortgage rates. Weekly jobless claims and retail sales data will also be released.

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Rhetoric ratchets up, rates remain steady

Economic Observer
Rhetoric Ratchets Up

Overview: Over the past week, the main influences on mortgage rates were an escalation in tensions with North Korea and additional details about a proposed tax reform plan. These had offsetting effects, and mortgage rates ended with little change. 

The rhetoric between the U.S. and North Korea shifted to a higher gear over the past week. On Friday, North Korea threatened to detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific. Then on Monday, North Korean officials said that they interpreted President Trump’s weekend comments as a declaration of war. Investors responded to both events by shifting from riskier assets such as stocks to relatively safer assets, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The added demand for MBS caused mortgage rates to decline.

However, the improvement was reversed on Wednesday when President Trump released additional details about a proposed tax plan. If this plan or a similar one is passed, it is expected to boost economic growth and raise the outlook for future inflation. Since higher inflation is negative for mortgage rates, rates moved higher. In addition, the budget deficit is expected to increase under the tax plan. This potential increase in the supply of bonds was also bad for mortgage rates.

In August, sales of newly constructed homes unexpectedly dropped from July to the lowest level since December 2016. According to the Commerce Department, though, the data in Texas and Florida may have been affected by the recent hurricanes. On a more positive note, the inventory of new homes for sale rose to a 6.1-month supply, which was the highest level since July 2014.

Week Ahead

Looking ahead, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Friday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index will come out on October 2, followed by the ISM Services Index on October 4. The next Employment Report will be released on October 6. Note that any changes in the relationship with North Korea could influence mortgage rates.


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Jason R. Richardson Photo Jason R. Richardson
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27413 Tourney Road Suite #150
Valencia, CA 91355
(866) 575-9993
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Economic Observer
Commentary provided by MBSQuoteline. For live MBS pricing visit www.mbsquoteline.com.

This letter is for information purposes only and is not an advertisement to extend customer credit as defined by Section 12 CFR 1026.2 Regulation Z. Program rates, terms and conditions are subject to change at any time.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 25th, 2017

Last week’s economic news included readings on housing starts, building permits issued and sales of pre-owned homes. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee issued its customary post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Housing Starts Lower, but Building Permits Increase

August saw fewer housing starts with 1.18 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. July’s reading was upwardly adjusted to 1.19 million starts; analysts expected 1.175 million starts annually in August. Building permits rose in August, which suggested builder confidence was strong regardless of fewer starts.

Recent hurricanes had little effect on August building permits, but building permits will likely increase as rebuilding gets under way in affected areas. 1.30 million building permits were issued on an annual basis as compared to July’s reading of 1.23 million permits issued. August’s reading for permits issued was the second highest since 2007.

Analysts noted that more permits were issued for single-family residences than for multi-family complexes. This is likely a response to high demand for single-family homes caused by persistent shortages of homes for sale. Multi-family permits issued fell by 5.80 percent in August with 323,000 permits reported. August’s reading for multi-family housing permits was 23 percent lower year-over-year.

PreOwned Home Sales Dip, Fed Holds Steady on Federal Funds Rate

Sales of previously-owned homes fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million sales in August. Analysts expected a reading of 5.44 million sales, which matched July’s seasonally-adjusted annual reading of 5.44 million sales of previously-owned homes. High demand and very low inventories of homes for sale has caused sales to fall although very low unemployment rates and relatively low mortgage rates were positive indicators for would-be home buyers.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announced it did not raise the current federal funds rate of 1.00 to 1,25 percent. Fed Chair Janet Yellen remarked that “the basic message here is U.S. economic performance has been good.” The Fed was puzzled by sluggish inflation and revised its long-term inflation goal from 3.00 percent to 2.80 percent. The Fed is expected to raise its target federal funds rate one more time in 2017 and twice in 2018; this prediction may change if economic forecasts and world events change significantly.

Mortgage Rates Rise, New Jobless Claims Fall

Mortgage rates rose last week in response to the 10-year Treasury rate rising by seven basis points. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage rate rose five basis points to 3.83 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose five basis points to 3.13 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose four basis points to 3.17 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims were lower with 259,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 302,000 new jobless claims based on the prior week’s reading of 282,000 new jobless claims filed.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on new and pending home sales, personal income, and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims are scheduled along with a monthly reading on consumer sentiment.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 18, 2017

Last week’s economic readings release included reports on inflation, core inflation retail sales and retail sales excluding autos. Consumer sentiment, along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also reported.

Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Retail Sales Lag

Consumer prices rose 0.40 percent in August, which surpassed expectations of 0.30 percent growth and July’s reading of 0.10 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy sectors, matched expectations with a reading of 0.20 percent growth and exceeded July’s growth of 0.10 percent.

August retail sales fell to -0.20 percent against expectations of no change from July’s reading of 0.30 percent.

Retail sales excluding auto sales grew by 0.20 percent, which was lower than expected growth of 0.40 percent, which was based on July’s growth rate of 0.40 percent.  

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, Weekly Jobless Claims Dip

Freddie Mac reported no change for averaged fixed mortgage rates; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.78 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.08 percent and was also unchanged from last week’s reading. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by two basis points to 3.13 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. The readings for fixed rate mortgages were the lowest in 2017, and provided an ongoing incentive for home shoppers who continued to face high home prices and slim inventories of homes for sale.

New jobless claims were lower at 284,000 new claims filed than last week and were also lower than the expected reading of 300,000 first-time jobless claims The prior week’s reading reported 297,000 first-time jobless claims.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on home builder sentiment, existing home sales, housing starts and building permits issued. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will issue its post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give a press conference. Weekly readings for mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released. 

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Worried About Interest Rates Rising? Here’s How You Can Prepare for an Upward Trend

Worried About Interest Rates Rising? Here's How You Can Prepare for an Upward TrendWhether you are just starting to shop for a new home or you’ve been paying off your mortgage for years, the news of potential interest rate increases may be worrying. Of course, interest rates naturally cycle higher and lower over time, so is there anything to be genuinely concerned about? In today’s article, we’ll explore interest rates and how you can prepare for an upward trend in rates if and when the time comes.

Speak With Your Mortgage Advisor First

If you already have a mortgage, the first step would be to speak with your lender to discuss what’s coming in regards to interest rates. If you are locked into a “fixed” rate, check and see how long you have left before this needs to be adjusted. If you are on a floating or adjustable rate, you may be able to lock that in for a few years.

If you do not already have a mortgage advisor or if you want a second opinion, we can help. Get in touch with us at your convenience.

Refinance When The Time Is Right

It is always a good idea to understand when the best time to refinance your mortgage might be. In short, refinancing refers to the process of swapping out your current mortgage loan for a new one. Your new mortgage pays off your old mortgage, and you continue forward paying down the new loan. This is typically done when interest rates are on the way down, but refinancing applies to many home owners at different times. Have an honest discussion with your lender to determine if refinancing is right for you.

Start Tucking Aside Extra Cash

Finally, if you are truly concerned that you may have to spend a bit more to cover your monthly mortgage payment in the future, it’s best to start saving now. Put aside an extra $25 or $50 each month into a savings account where it can stay until you need to use it. The upside is that, if you don’t need it, you’ll have a nice nest egg which can be invested or added to your retirement savings.

Aside from preparing yourself financially, there is little else you can do about the direction of mortgage interest rates. To learn more about rate trends or to discuss how they might impact your mortgage, contact us today. We’re happy to share our experience and insight to help you make the best decision.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 11, 2017

Last week’s economic news was slim due to the Labor Day Holiday. Scheduled releases included the Fed’s Beige Book Report and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. 

Beige Book Cites Concerns Over U.S. Auto Industry

Federal Reserve Board members shared anecdotes from their respective regions; of note were concerns about U.S. automakers. Auto production was more than 16 percent lower year-over-year in Cleveland, Ohio. Fed business contacts said that automakers are no longer seeking buildings for expanding production. Analysts said that slowing auto production and sales could indicate slowing economic trends. Auto industry slow-downs could also result in layoffs in auto production and sales/

Economic conditions, in general, continue to improve at a “modest to moderate” rate. August’s Beige Book did not include responses to damage caused by Hurricane Harvey, but damage to Houston and surrounding areas were expected to impact negatively impact the economy.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed rate mortgage rates last week; this was the second consecutive week of record low rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped by four basis points to 3.78 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also four basis points lower at 3.08 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.15 percent. Discount points for fixed rate mortgages averaged 0.50 percent and points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

New jobless claims rose sharply to 298,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 242,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 236,000 new jobless claims filed. Hurricane Harvey was blamed for the surge in new jobless claims. Further impacts on jobless claims were expected as two hurricanes, Irma and Jose, approached Florida on Friday. Severe damage was predicted; the total economic impact will be assessed in the aftermath of the hurricanes.

Whats Ahead

This week’s economic reports include readings on job openings, inflation, retail sales and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

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Rates reach best levels since November elections

Economic Observer
Another Missile Test

Overview: Over the past week, yet another increase in tensions with North Korea was positive for mortgage rates. Recent economic data had little impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended at the best levels since before the November elections. 

North Korea conducted another missile test on Sunday. This was the most powerful missile yet. The reaction by investors to the uncertainty about where this could lead was a “flight to safety.” This means that they shifted from riskier assets, such as stocks, to relatively safer assets, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The added demand for MBS caused mortgage rates to decline.

The earnings component of the key Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday showed that the annual rate of wage growth in August held steady from July at 2.5%, which was lower than expected. When the labor market tightens and the unemployment rate drops, companies usually are forced to compete for workers by raising wages. Early in the year, this appeared to be happening, as annual wage growth looked to be rising toward 3.0% or higher. For the last six months, however, the annual rate has been holding steady around 2.5%. Possible reasons include demographic changes and a shifting mix of higher paying versus lower paying jobs. In any case, a lower level of wage growth reduces future inflationary pressures, which is good for mortgage rates.

Week Ahead

Looking ahead, there will be a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, which could affect U.S. mortgage rates. Investors will be looking for information from the ECB about future plans for tapering its bond purchase program. In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come out on September 14. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation report. The Retail Sales report will be released on September 15. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator.

Contact me to discuss how I can help your clients with their mortgage needs.

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Jason R. Richardson Photo Jason R. Richardson
NMLS# 256859
Mid America Mortgage, Inc.
27413 Tourney Road Suite #150
Valencia, CA 91355
(866) 575-9993
EMAIL ME
Visit my website

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn Google+YouTube channel

Mid America Mortgage, Inc. Logo
Economic Observer
Commentary provided by MBSQuoteline. For live MBS pricing visit www.mbsquoteline.com.

This letter is for information purposes only and is not an advertisement to extend customer credit as defined by Section 12 CFR 1026.2 Regulation Z. Program rates, terms and conditions are subject to change at any time.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 5, 2017

Last week’s economic reports included readings on home prices, pending home sales and construction spending. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were released along with labor-sector readings on Non-Farm Payrolls, ADP employment and National Unemployment.

CaseShiller: Three Western Cities Hold Top Three Places for Home Price Growth

According to Case-Shiller’s June edition of its 20-City Home Price Index, the top three spots were again held by Seattle, Washington, Portland Oregon and Dallas, Texas. Seattle home prices outstripped Portland, Oregon with a reading of 13.40 percent home price growth on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Portland, Oregon home prices grew by a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year rate of 8.20 percent while Dallas, Texas held third place with its year-over-year reading of 7.70 percent growth.

 David Blitzer, CEO and Managing Director of S&P’s Index Committee, said that he sees no indications that home prices will cool anytime soon. Strong labor markets and economic growth are encouraging home buyers while low inventories of homes for sale coupled with high demand continued to fuel home price growth.

Construction spending dipped in July by -0.60 percent as compared to expected growth of + 0.60 percent and June’s reading of 1.30 percent growth in spending. Real estate pros said that building more homes is the only way to ease demand for homes, but builders cited labor and lot shortages along with rising materials costs as obstacles to building more homes faster.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Weekly Jobless Claims Rise

Mortgage rates remain relatively low; Freddie Mac reported average mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell four basis points to 3.82 percent; interest rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage were four basis points lower at 3.12 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was three basis points lower at 3.14 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for all three mortgage types.

First-time jobless claims rose by 1000 claims to 236,000. Analysts had expected no change from the prior week’s reading of 235,000 new jobless claims.

ADP payrolls rose to 237,000 new jobs reported for August as compared to 201,000 new private-sector jobs reported in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 156,000 new public and private sector jobs in August; Based on the ADP report and the expected reading of 170,000 new public and private-sector jobs, revision of the Non-Farm Payrolls report appears likely.

The National Unemployment rate ticked up from July’s reading of 4.30 percent to 4.40 percent in August. Low readings for unemployment indicate that layoffs are not significantly contributing to unemployment.

Whats Ahead

No financial reports will be issued Monday in observance of the Labor Day Holiday. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report will be released along with reports on productivity and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

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Mixed data causes little change in mortgage rates

Economic Observer
Mixed Data

Overview: Wednesday’s dovish Fed minutes caused a minor improvement in mortgage rates, while the major economic data released over the past week contained mixed results and was roughly offsetting. In addition, reduced concern about North Korea was slightly negative for mortgage rates. The net effect was that mortgage rates ended the week with little change. 

The minutes from the July 26 Fed meeting were viewed as slightly more dovish than expected, which was good for mortgage rates. There appears to be growing uncertainty among Fed officials about when inflation will begin to increase. In recent months, the major inflation indicators have remained well below the Fed’s target of 2.0%. According to the minutes, some Fed officials felt that the Fed “could afford to be patient under current circumstances” in terms of tightening monetary policy.

Recently released economic data contained mixed news. On Friday, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that inflation in July was just 1.7% higher than a year ago, which was the same annual rate as in June. This was down from an annual rate of 2.3% in February. The surprisingly low inflation data was good for mortgage rates. However, Tuesday’s Retail Sales report showed unexpectedly strong gains. In July, retail sales, excluding the volatile auto component, jumped 0.5% from June, and the June results were revised significantly higher as well. Stronger economic activity raises the outlook for future inflation, and mortgage rates rose due to the retail sales data.

Last week, rising tensions with North Korea benefited mortgage rates as investors shifted to safer assets such as bonds. As is often the case, a reversal in mortgage rates took place this week when investor sentiment changed. This week, it appeared that the situation with North Korea was less likely to escalate, and investors sold bonds to return to riskier assets.

Week Ahead

Looking ahead, investors will continue to keep an eye on the situation with North Korea. In addition, Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, will be released on Thursday. The minutes from the July 20 European Central Bank meeting will also come out on Thursday and could influence U.S. markets. The New Home Sales report will be released on August 23, followed by Existing Home Sales on August 24.


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Jason R. Richardson Photo Jason R. Richardson
NMLS# 256859
Mid America Mortgage, Inc.
27413 Tourney Road Suite #150
Valencia, CA 91355
(866) 575-9993
EMAIL ME
Visit my website

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn Google+YouTube channel

Mid America Mortgage, Inc. Logo
Economic Observer
Commentary provided by MBSQuoteline. For live MBS pricing visit www.mbsquoteline.com.

This letter is for information purposes only and is not an advertisement to extend customer credit as defined by Section 12 CFR 1026.2 Regulation Z. Program rates, terms and conditions are subject to change at any time.

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